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US electoral politics, being a nerd about numbers 

If you want to see some numbers that might blow your mind:

electproject.github.io/Early-V

This has all of the public early voting data available.

It's...kind of amazing. Here's one small nugget:

In North Carolina, there have already been 3.8 million votes cast between early voting and returned mail-in ballots. That's 81% of the total votes cast in 2016. Not only is that a huge number, a 26% of those early votes are cast by people who did not vote in the state for the 2016 Presidential Election. Either they didn't live there, weren't eligible or simply did not vote.

Given this early vote data, plus the responses in polls compared to previous elections, plus the record mid-term turnout in 2018...I am really firmly coming to believe that the turnout might actually be the highest in a century...and that's despite the right's continuing voter suppression manuevers.

US electoral politics, being a nerd about numbers 

By the way, if you ever want to nerd out about numbers and find some interesting things in polls, look at the rarely polled states and compare those numbers to previous election years.

For example, take a look at Montana. It's a Red state and its electoral votes have gone to the GOP all but twice in the last 70 years. It's not big, and it's not a "swing state" so no one pays attention.

Trump is VERY likely to win Montana, and that's not very interesting either. What IS interesting is the margin of victory. Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, and generally speaking when Republicans win elections, they win Montana by 20 points or more (1988 being the most interesting of the exceptions). When the Democratic Party comes close in Montana, they usually win.

In 2008 Obama lost by 2 points, Clinton won it by 2 and then lost it by 4 during his reelection campaign.

So what do the polls in Montana say?

Trump is up by 2-8%...

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US electoral politics, being a nerd about numbers 

@AudreyJune wait, first you talked about points, but then %, can you clarify what it means?

US electoral politics, being a nerd about numbers 

@maloki Oh I just used "points" (as in "percentage points") and percentages interchangeably.

In both cases, it's the margin of victory (or lead) if referring to polls.

One candidate receiving 53% over a candidate who received 44% of the vote would have won by 9% or 9 "points."

US electoral politics, being a nerd about numbers 

@AudreyJune okay, I wasn't sure, and when it's late I don't trust my mind. 😅 Figured it was safer to ask!

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